Zorbas developed over the southern Ionian and showed tropical-like characteristics before affecting the Peloponnese and areas farther east. Its prediction carried substantial uncertainty in both track and intensity.
Event timeline
- 27 Sep — The surface low organises over the southern Ionian Sea.
- 28–29 Sep — The circulation strengthens and affects southwestern Greece.
- 30 Sep — The system moves east, carrying rain and strong winds farther across Greece.
What happened in the atmosphere
Interaction between an upper low and the warm sea favoured a gradually more compact cyclonic structure. Surface-pressure observations and satellite imagery helped describe its actual intensity.
For small Mediterranean systems, a track shift of only a few tens of kilometres can substantially alter local gusts and rainfall. A probability distribution is therefore more useful than a single scenario.
What helps us interpret the event
- Emphasise track uncertainty, not only the central forecast.
- Combine satellite, surface pressure and marine wind observations.
- The term medicane is not, by itself, a hazard category.
Historical analysis must not be used as guidance for a new event. During active severe weather, follow HNMS, Civil Protection, 112 and local authorities.